Based on the latest data, the odds are extremely high - essentially 100% - that 3I/ATLAS will reach Jupiter's Hill sphere. Here's why:
The Numbers
According to NASA's JPL Horizons calculations using data from approximately 230 observatories, 3I/ATLAS will arrive at a minimum distance of 53.445 (+/- 0.06) million kilometers from Jupiter on March 16, 2026 (PRIMETIMER) .
Jupiter's Hill radius on that same date will be 53.502 million kilometers (PRIMETIMER) .
The difference? Only 0.057 million kilometers (57,000 km).
This means 3I/ATLAS will pass within the margin of error of Jupiter's Hill sphere boundary. The 3-sigma uncertainty in the object's position at closest approach is only ±790 km, making this one of the most precisely tracked interstellar objects ever.
What Makes This Remarkable
The precision is striking for several reasons:
It's within one standard deviation - the predicted closest approach matches Jupiter's Hill radius almost exactly within the measurement uncertainty
Non-gravitational acceleration matters - 3I/ATLAS experienced non-gravitational acceleration near perihelion that caused a small trajectory shift. Without this correction, 3I/ATLAS would have missed the Hill sphere (Veritas News)
The timing is perfect - it will arrive at this precise distance on March 16, 2026, when Jupiter is at exactly the right position in its orbit
Why Scientists Are Paying Attention
The Lagrange points L1 and L2 are located at the Hill radius and are ideal locations for technological satellites, since orbital corrections and fuel requirements are minimal there (Medium) .
If any objects were released at this distance to orbit Jupiter, they would need propulsion to cancel out 3I/ATLAS's 65.9 km/s relative velocity, since the escape speed at the Hill radius is only 2.2 km/s (Medium) .
So yes, 3I/ATLAS will definitely reach Jupiter's Hill sphere - the question is what happens when it gets there.
